The Cube of Gold

Warren Buffett once put a choice to two financial writers over a conversation they would go on to publish. On one side of the choice: all the gold in the world. Every ring, every bar, every coin ever...

Warren Buffett once put a choice to two financial writers over a conversation they would go on to publish. On one side of the choice: all the gold in the world. Every ring, every bar, every coin ever pulled from the earth, melted together. It would form a cube of metal roughly the size of a large mansion. You could walk around it. You could climb it. It would gleam. On the other side: all the farmland in the United States, plus ten companies the size of Exxon Mobil, plus a trillion dollars of walking-around money. Which would you choose? Which is likely to be the more productive long-term investment?

The writers were Ben Stein and Phil DeMuth, and they relay the thought experiment in The Little Book of Alternative Investments: Reaping Rewards by Daring to be Different, their 2011 survey of everything investors buy when they are tired of plain stocks and bonds. The cube is designed to feel like a trick question and is not one. The farmland grows food every season. The companies make and sell things every day. The cash can be deployed at any moment toward whatever the world needs next. The cube does none of this. In fifty years, the farms will have produced fifty harvests, the companies fifty years of earnings, and the cube will sit there, the same size, waiting for someone to admire it. Everything it will ever give you must come from a future buyer's willingness to pay more than you did.

Before we lean further on the book, its label needs reading. It was written for American investors in 2010 and 2011, near the top of a historic run in the gold price, and its practical suggestions are US funds with tickers that have mostly merged, closed, or been renamed since. None of those recommendations travel to a family reading this today in Nairobi, Houston, or Berlin, and we will carry none across. What travels is the distinction the cube teaches, because that distinction is not about gold at all. It is about the difference between a store of value and an asset that earns, and it applies with uncomfortable force to the things African families actually treat as their gold: land held idle, cattle kept for standing, jewelry in the drawer. That application is our translation, not the authors', and we will mark it when we make it.

Here is the essay's one idea in a single sentence. Every family needs a safe haven, but a safe haven is a store of value, not an engine, and a family that lets the store swallow the engine has not preserved its legacy; it has parked it.

A store of value holds wealth. It does not make any.

Stein and DeMuth are entertainers, but their chapter on gold is built on one sober economic distinction. Some assets are what economists call earning assets: they produce something by themselves. In the authors' words, "If you own a plot of land, you can rent it or farm it and produce income." A business makes goods and sells them at a profit. But a commodity, they write, does nothing of the kind: "if you own a bar of zinc, all it does is sit there." You can look at it, it can look at you, and the only way it ever makes you money is if somebody later pays you more for it than you did.

Gold is the most beloved bar of zinc in human history. The authors grant it its genuine roles: it has, at various times, hedged inflation, held value while paper currencies wilted, hedged political chaos, and moved independently of stocks and bonds. But they immediately add the clause that gold sellers omit: it has served these roles at various points in the past, and there are no guarantees it will serve any of them in the future. Whether gold even earns a place as its own asset class, they note, depends entirely on which start and stop dates you choose for the argument. Over some stretches it adds a Midas touch. Over others, and especially over the long haul, it sits there like lead.

Their sharpest warning is about timing and mood. People have always invented special reasons why now is the moment for gold, and the authors' concern is that most buyers arrive "exactly when the mystical premium is highest," paying for the shine at the top of the fever. Their own house position is a shrug delivered with a grin: "If you are a king or a pirate, you should have a chest full of gold. In other cases, the need is less compelling." They liked a little gold fine, inside a broad basket of many commodities, and had no great interest in it by itself. When in doubt, they advise about all such holdings, include it out.

Our translation: the family's gold is not always yellow.

Everything above could be read in any country. What follows is ours alone. The book never mentions African family wealth, and we are carrying its distinction to places its authors never pointed it.

In many of our families, at home and in the diaspora, the cube of gold is not gold. It is the plot. Land bought and fenced and left, sometimes for decades, as the family's ultimate safe haven: the thing that cannot be stolen by inflation, cannot collapse like a bank, can be stood upon and shown to children. The reverence is earned; land has carried families through currency crises that erased every paper asset around it, and in communities where memories of confiscation and collapse are living memories rather than history, wanting wealth you can stand on is not superstition. It is scar tissue. The same instinct holds the herd of cattle kept for standing rather than for the market, and the gold jewelry that functions as a woman's private reserve, the one asset in the household that is unarguably hers. We write nothing against any of this. These stores have done real work.

But apply the Buffett test honestly, plot by plot. Land that is farmed is farmland: an earning asset, the good side of the choice. Land that is rented earns. Land that holds the family home shelters, which is its own kind of earning. But land that simply sits behind a fence, growing weeds and waiting for a buyer, is a bar of zinc with a view. Its entire return depends on someone later paying more, which is precisely the wager the authors distrust, and in the meantime it quietly charges rent in reverse: the school fees that were not paid from its rental income, the business that was not seeded, the boundary disputes and caretaking and the cousin who must be paid to watch it. A family can be land-rich in exactly the way a king's treasury is gold-rich: impressively, and unproductively.

The diaspora version of the cube deserves its own sentence, because it is the one we see swallowing whole legacies. A professional abroad wires money home year after year into plot after plot, each one a cube, none of them earning, all of them justified as "you can never go wrong with land." Twenty years later the family holds seven fences and no engine, and the plots, as we write elsewhere in this wave about collectibles and thin markets, turn out to be far easier to buy than to sell. Converting money into land is easy. Converting land back into money, at a fair price, on the day you actually need it, is the hard part, and the need has a way of arriving during exactly the seasons when no one is buying.

Size the haven before the haven sizes you.

Notice that neither the authors nor this essay says: hold no gold, buy no land. Stein and DeMuth themselves owned tiny amounts of gold even while teasing its worshippers. The instruction hiding in the cube is not abolition. It is proportion. A safe haven is a slice of a legacy, deliberately sized, and the sizing has to be done in the open, because the haven's emotional gravity will otherwise grow it one comfortable decision at a time until it is the whole estate.

A family can run the sizing with three honest questions asked of each store-of-value holding. What is this for? If the answer is insurance against catastrophe, then it should be sized like insurance: enough to matter on the terrible day, not so much that the premium consumes the household. Who will turn it back into money, and how fast? Jewelry can cross a border in a pocket; a plot in a contested registry cannot be sold in a hard month at anything but a scavenger's price. And what is it costing us? Not in fees, which a fence never sends, but in the earning assets the same money did not become: the rental rooms not built, the shop not stocked, the education not bought. The cube's real price is always invisible, because it is paid in things that never happened.

There is one more honesty this sorting forces, and elders are usually the only ones who can perform it. Some of what the family calls investment is actually meaning: the grandmother's bangles, the land where the ancestors are buried, the first plot the founder ever bought. These should be kept, openly, as heritage, priceless and off the books, exactly as we argue in our companion essay on collecting for love. What corrodes a legacy is not sentiment; it is sentiment wearing investment's clothes, a cube on the balance sheet that no one is ever actually allowed to sell. Name it heritage and it becomes a treasure. Call it an asset and it becomes a lie the family tells its own heirs.

This is work a family can make visible in LegacyPot's Legacy Pots: give the safe haven its own named pot with a written purpose and a ceiling, a share of family wealth it may not quietly grow beyond, and keep the earning assets in pots of their own, so that one glance shows whether the engine or the cube is winning. The unproductive holdings the family chooses to keep for meaning can be named as exactly that, and nobody inherits a confusion.

The decision

This season, hold the cube conversation. Gather the decision-makers and list every store-of-value holding the family owns: the idle plots, the gold, the jewelry that is secretly the reserve, the cattle kept for standing. Beside each one, write which side of Buffett's choice it sits on: does it earn, or does it wait? Then set the ceiling on purpose, a stated share of family wealth that may sit in havens, and either put every holding above that line to work, farm it, rent it, build on it, sell it and seed something that earns, or move it, in writing, to the heritage column where it is kept for love and never counted as the engine.

The families that last a thousand years are not the ones that trusted nothing but gold, and not the ones that held none. They are the ones that could tell, at every generation, exactly which of their possessions were the cube and which were the farmland, and never let the shining, sitting, sterile thing convince the children it was the harvest. The cube keeps score. The farmland feeds people. Know which one you are handing down, and in what proportion, before your heirs find out the hard way, on a day when no one is buying.

Keep reading

  • Collect for Love, Not for Money
  • The Portfolio Pie Is a Lie
  • Cash Is the Alternative

Keep reading

  • Collect for Love, Not for Money
  • The Portfolio Pie Is a Lie
  • Cash Is the Alternative